Q1. According to a World Economic Outlook report by IMF in 2022: “The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023.”
The same report in 2007: “World growth in recent years has been much more rapid than at any time since the oil price surges of the 1970s. This growth is being shared across countries to an unprecedented degree. Moreover, output volatility in most countries and regions has significantly declined. Analyses show that these changes in business cycle characteristics and finds that the increasing stability and the associated increase in the durability of expansions largely reflect sources that are likely to prove persistent. Improvements in the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy, as well as in broader institutional quality, have all reduced output volatility. The prospects for future stability should, however, not be taken for granted. Low average volatility does not mean that the business cycle is dead. The abrupt end to the period of strong and sustained growth in the 1960s and early 1970s provides a useful cautionary lesson about what can happen if policies do not adjust to tackle emerging risks in a timely manner”.
Since the report in 2007, we have seen two major recessions, the Great Recession (the 2008 Crisis) and the current recession due to the global pandemic and its consequent economic conditions. These recessions are of magnitude that are unprecedented compared to the recession of the last 50 years. The first report informs about the reduction in the fluctuations around the growth trend (that is what volatility roughly means) and praise the possibility of sustained growth. So, how should we interpret what happened since, is the low volatility period dead and recessions are back and even stronger? From 2007 to 2022, what went wrong?
Make your evaluation based on the business cycle analysis and do a bit research if necessary. Extend your thoughts into the questions; why low/less fluctuations are desirable? We know the long run economic growth depends on some fundamental factors, then if those are not changing what makes the economy fluctuate in the short run (i.e., put the economy into a recession); What could be the next emerging risks in 2022 onward compared to the stable growth period (sometimes known as the Great moderation period until 2008)? What are the general and specific risks to tackle in the Kingdom, GCC, globally?
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