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Briefly present the methodology you will use and why they are the correct choice given your data

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

HOW TO STRUCTURE AN ESSAY ON FORECASTING

With useful phrases 

Introduction

Start by clearly positioning the paper on a theoretical field. You need to establish the context, present the problem and show its importance. This should answer the questions of “what” you want to study and “why”. Useful phrases:

X is among the most important factors for …

X is a classic problem in …

X plays a critical role in

State what is your research question, define what is the objective of the paper. Useful phrases:

The paper will try to forecast …

This essay aims to explore the relationship between …

Describe the research design and method. This should answer the question of “how” you study what you wanted to study. Useful phrases:

This investigation will use the X and Y models …

This paper follows an empirical strategy to forecast …

[don’t go too much in detail: just mention the time series and briefly the method. You’ll go more on details in the method section]

Anticipate what are the most important findings of your research and why is it relevant. Useful phrases: 

The study recommends using the method X if we want to forecast Y…

The implications/recommendation are…

[you will go more on details in the discussion section] 

 [It is good to have a draft of the introduction from the beginning, to test if what you’ll do makes sense and if the argument holds… however keep in mind that this is usually the last part that one writes, i.e. after all the rest is ready and you know exactly what is that you claim. Stay within one and two pages.]

Data

Present your data. Always start with the data coverage (time/country), frequency, and total observations number.

 

Explain why your data are good for your purpose.

·       •  Thanks to this data I can present forecast for X periods ahead …

 

·         This dataset allows analyzing how X will behave in the future, which is relevant because…

 

Discuss the main features of your time series with the help of graphs and tests. You need to be detailed and refer to the various plot. A good idea is to number the figures and tables.

·        •  In Fig. X shows the presence …

·         From Table X we can see …

 

If necessary, present and discuss data transformation.

Results

Apply the methodology(ies) to your data. Discuss the results and the performance of the methodologies.

Present your forecasts with the help of graphs, tables, tests, and statistics. Cross validate your results.

In Fig. X shows the presence …

From Table X we can see …

Conclusions

This is a short section aimed at summarizing the whole research and the main findings (“the aim of the present research was to…”, “the study has shown that…”, “the results of this research support/contradict the idea that…”). It can also include acknowledgment of limitations, ad suggestions for further research or speculation for the future. 

General implications/recommendations are usually included in the conclusions. Useful phrases for setting out implications/recommendations

These findings suggest that in the future X is going to …

A reasonable course of action given my forecast could be …

This study suggests that X should be avoided if you want to forecast Y …

Taken together, these findings do not support strong recommendations to …

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