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# Conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis of the two year vaccination program

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES

To whom it may concern: Conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis of the two year vaccination program using following assumptions, where p1 - probability in year 1, p2 - probability in year 2, Cinv = cost of infection - not vaccinating, Civ = cost infection - being vaccinated, Cv = of vaccination. Description of the data - Attachment 1 Tree design - Attachment 2 Special Note: You should simulate whether or not the infection occurs in years 1 and 2 and calculate the net costs/benefits conditional on those contingencies.

Also, don’t forget to solve the decision problem in year 2 for each draw! It’s possible that in some trials you will have draws from the cost distributions such that the specific inequality assumed to derive the net cost expression. You will need a different net cost expression for those trials. Since this is governed by one inequality, one “if/else” statement keyed on the inequality should be sufficient to implement this. Stata code should be around or less than 10 lines. Output: coding in Stata, visual distribution, answer to the question 1 and 2 above.

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