Adjust formatting to keep it as a 2-page document (easier to read and grade)
Points off for: Incorrect or incomplete answers. Lateness (but late > never)
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1Total Debt = Intragovernmental Holdings + Public Debt. Visit www.treasurydirect.gov and follow "Government > Reports > Public Debt Reports", then click (sidebar) on "Debt to the Penny". Fill in these details for
a Date (latest): Total Debt: $
b Click on "Historical Debt Outstanding"; select "2000-2019".Write the total debt figure for (fiscal year) 2019: $
c Switch to "1950-1999". What is the most recent pair of fiscal years where the total debt
declined, year-over-year? 19 to 19
2 The debt figures in #1 are nominal amounts. Visit fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN for the graphical version. To find the Real total debt requires deflating Total Public Debt by a price index (similar to finding Real GDP): click the 'Edit Graph' button. Then, next to the 'add' button type in
GDP Deflator (or GDPDEF). When the official name loads in the field, just double-click on it, then press 'add'. Wait for it to appear as item (b), then where it says 'Formula:' type in: 100*a/b
and tap on 'apply'. The Fred site automatically matches the common dates before dividing, and presents a new graph ( Total Public Debt / GDP Deflator, which is Real Total Debt in 2012 dollars).
a What does this graph look like, especially since the 1980s?
Sketch (or copy/paste) a small version of it, with labels →
b What is the Real Total Public Debt figure for the last quarter in the graph? (hover the cursor over it)$
While at fred.stlouisfed.org, locate their graphs for "Unemployment rate" (unrate) and "Median Weeks Unemployed" (uempmed) Keep the default settings from the 1940s-60s to"now".
- hover the cursor on the graph line to show the dates and values - (use Not Seasonally Adjusted) -
3a The peak civilian unemployment rate occurred (mo/yr) →
b The peak median duration occurred (mo/yr) →
, at % =
, at # =
For items 4 – 6 use the "Not Seasonally Adjusted" sections
4 The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates information about (un)employment and price changes in the US economy. Visit its site, www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm and locate Table A-1. In the Not Seasonally Adjusted section, find the 2 most recent months and fill in the blanks below: include the website's Last Modified Date:
4a. Month / Year / /
b. Total unemployed #
c. Unemployment rates for total: %
d. men 20 & over: %
e. women 20 & over: %
f. both, 16 – 19 years: %
← put the most recent month here (match the website's
format)
5 Next, consult Table A-12 for duration. For the same 2 months in #4a, fill in the figures for median duration
6 Continue with Table A-15 for various unemployment rates. For the same 2 months as in #4a, fill in the % figures for
U1:
U3:
U6:
(brief replies) :
7
a How does the number in 3a compare with the figures in #4c and #6?
b " " " in 3b compare with the figures in #5?
c What are some non-economic effects of unemployment?
8 a) Locate the tiny graph at www.shadowstats.com and click on 'EMP' to expand it. Notice how U3 tracks the FRED graph in #3a. Fill in the latest month / year / % for the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate: /
b) Why is the ShadowStats unemployment rate % larger than the BLS figures in #4 and #6? hint: how does ShadowStats count "long-term discouraged workers" in the US economy, compared with the BLS? (brief reply)
9 BLS also tracks components for the Consumer Price Index (urban), CPI-U. Review their webpage,
www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t07.htm
for details about price changes by categories. Notice it doesn't include Taxes.
Is the CPI-U better at tracking the "cost of living" or the "cost of things"? (briefly explain)
10 The Yield Curve (YC) refers to a plot of US Treasury securities, by their maturities and interest rates.
a) Complete table below by visiting stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php
write in date viewed → |
Hover over a point to fill in the rates for all the periods below: |
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Maturity: |
3 mo |
2 yr |
5 yr |
7 yr |
10 yr |
20 yr |
30 yr |
Rate %: |
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The normal YC appearance is that shorter maturities have lower rates. If the YC flattens, or even "inverts" (shorter maturities have higher rates), this might signal a downturn in the business cycle. In the S&P graph set the red line to 2019 then 2020/1 and observe the YC graph.
b) Sketch (or copy/paste) the YCs for these 2 periods. Did the YC invert during these times?
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