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What is the Real Total Public Debt figure for the last quarter in the graph?

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ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

Adjust formatting to keep it as a 2-page document (easier to read and grade)

Points off for:            Incorrect or incomplete answers.                   Lateness (but late > never)

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1Total Debt = Intragovernmental Holdings + Public Debt. Visit www.treasurydirect.gov and follow "Government > Reports > Public Debt Reports", then click (sidebar) on "Debt to the Penny". Fill in these details for

a          Date (latest):                                                   Total Debt: $

 b Click on "Historical Debt Outstanding"; select "2000-2019".Write the total debt figure for (fiscal year) 2019:             $

 

 c Switch to "1950-1999". What is the most recent pair of fiscal years where the total debt

 

declined, year-over-year?               19                    to         19    

 2    The debt figures in #1 are nominal amounts. Visit          fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN for the graphical version. To find the Real total debt requires deflating Total Public Debt by a price index (similar to finding Real GDP):       click the 'Edit Graph' button. Then, next to the 'add' button type in

 

GDP Deflator (or GDPDEF). When the official name loads in the field, just double-click on it, then press 'add'. Wait for it to appear as item (b), then where it says 'Formula:' type in:             100*a/b

and tap on 'apply'. The Fred site automatically matches the common dates before dividing, and presents a new graph ( Total Public Debt / GDP Deflator, which is Real Total Debt in 2012 dollars).

 a What does this graph look like, especially since the 1980s?

 

Sketch (or copy/paste) a small version of it, with labels →

 b What is the Real Total Public Debt figure for the last quarter in the graph? (hover the cursor over it)$ 

While at fred.stlouisfed.org, locate their graphs for "Unemployment rate" (unrate) and "Median Weeks Unemployed" (uempmed) Keep the default settings from the 1940s-60s to"now".

- hover the cursor on the graph line to show the dates and values - (use Not Seasonally Adjusted) -

 

3a The peak civilian unemployment rate occurred (mo/yr) →           

 

b The peak median duration occurred                    (mo/yr) →                      

, at % =      

, at # =            

For items 4 – 6 use the "Not Seasonally Adjusted" sections

 

4        The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates information about (un)employment and price changes in the US economy. Visit its site, www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm and locate Table A-1. In the Not Seasonally Adjusted section, find the 2 most recent months and fill in the blanks below:                        include the website's Last Modified Date:       

 

4a.                                           Month / Year       /                                  /     

b.  Total unemployed                         #                                                   

c.  Unemployment rates for total:      %                                                  

d.  men 20 & over:           %                                                  

e.   women 20 & over:      %                                                  

f.  both, 16 – 19 years:    %                                                  

← put the most recent month here (match the website's

format)

5        Next, consult Table A-12 for duration. For the same 2 months in #4a, fill in the figures for median duration                                                              

6  Continue with Table A-15 for various unemployment rates. For the same 2 months as in #4a, fill in the % figures for

U1:                                                           

 

U3:                                                           

U6:                                                           

(brief replies) :

7

a How does the number in 3a compare with the figures in #4c and #6?

b "          "          " in 3b compare with the figures in #5?

c  What are some non-economic effects of unemployment? 

a) Locate the tiny graph at www.shadowstats.com and click on 'EMP' to expand it. Notice how U3 tracks the FRED graph in #3a. Fill in the latest        month / year /              %         for the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate:                        /                                

 b)  Why is the ShadowStats unemployment rate % larger than the BLS figures in #4 and #6? hint: how does ShadowStats count "long-term discouraged workers" in the US economy, compared with the BLS?        (brief reply)

 

 9    BLS also tracks components for the Consumer Price Index (urban), CPI-U. Review their webpage,

 

www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t07.htm

for details about price changes by categories. Notice it doesn't include Taxes.

Is the CPI-U better at tracking the "cost of living" or the "cost of things"? (briefly explain)

10    The Yield Curve (YC) refers to a plot of US Treasury securities, by their maturities and interest rates.     

 a) Complete table below by visiting stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php 

write in date viewed →

Hover over a point to fill in the rates for all the periods below:

Maturity:

3 mo

2 yr

5 yr

7 yr

10 yr

20 yr

30 yr

               

 

Rate %:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The normal YC appearance is that shorter maturities have lower rates. If the YC flattens, or even "inverts" (shorter maturities have higher rates), this might signal a downturn in the business cycle. In the S&P graph set the red line to 2019 then 2020/1 and observe the YC graph.

 

b)  Sketch (or copy/paste) the YCs for these 2 periods. Did the YC invert during these times?

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