Which of the following methods produces a particularly stiff penalty in periods with large forecast errors

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES

ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

l.A plant manager considers the operational cost per hour of five machine alternatives. The cost per hour is sensitive to three potential weather conditions: cold, mild, and warm. The following table represents the operations cost per hour for each alternative-

state of nature combination:

           States of Nature

          Weather related cost per hour

Alternatives Cold cost/day Mild cost/day Warm cost/day

Machine 1    28     38    36

Machine 2    42     33   39

Machine 3   32     39    38

Machine 4   29     33    34

Machine 5   37     40   38

Assume that for a randomly selected day, there is a 35% probability of cold weather, 45% probability of mild weather, and 20% probability of warm weather. What is the EVPI? (5 Points)

O A)035

O B)31.8

O C)31.45

O D)5.8

 

E) None

2. One MAD is equivalent to approximately (1 Point)
 ‘ A)0.8.
0 B)12.
o C)2.O.
o D)1.6.
021
3. Which of the following methods produces a particularly stiff penalty in periods with large forecast errors?
(2 Points)
O A)MAD
O B) MAPE
C)MSE
O D) Decomposition
O E) All give equal penalty

 

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