1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Overall form of assignment. This is a team assignment, worth 40% of the course mark.
Teams of two or three students must attempt questions 1–3. Teams of four must attempt all four questions. The mark for each question or part of a question is given in brackets [ ] in the right-hand margin. Teams of two or three are marked out of 100. Teams of four are marked out of 133.
This is an open book assessment. You may use a calculator throughout, and software packages where stated; but otherwise you must show all of the details of your work, including when using algorithms.
Standard UCD policies on late submission, plagiarism etc., apply. See
https://www.ucd.ie/governance/policypages/policypage-academicregulations
and follow the links.
1.2. Randomisation of problem data. In the problems, you will notice that I have used digits from student numbers. This is in order to make the problems differ from one student to another, and so enhance integrity of the assessment. Your student number is largely random and so allows for some randomisation of problem data.
Teams of two: choose one team member to be Student 1 and the other team member to be Student 2. Follow the instructions below, using the digits of Student 1’s student number for Question 1, and the digits of Student 2’s student number for both of Questions 2 and 3.
Teams of three: choose one team member to be Student 1, a different team member to be Student 2, and the third different team member to be Student 3. Follow the instructions below, using the digits of Student 1’s student number for Question 1, the digits of Stu- dent 2’s student number for Question 2 and the digits of Student 3’s student number for Question 3.
1
Teams of four: choose one team member to be Student 1, a different team member to be Student 2, a third different team member to be Student 3 and the fourth different team member to be Student 4. Follow the instructions below, using the digits of Student 1’s student number for Question 1, the digits of Student 2’s student number for Question 2, the digits of Student 3’s student number for Question 3 and the digits of Student 4’s student number for Question 4.
To find the digits to use, work as follows, using the relevant student number for the relevant problem:
Let s1, s2, . . . , s8 be the first, second, . . . , eighth digits, respectively, of your student num- ber, with the extra condition that if a digit is 0, you should change it to 5. For example, if your student number is 18473025, then s1 = 1, s2 = 8, s3 = 4, s4 = 7, s5 = 3, s6 = 5 (not 0), s7 = 2 and s8 = 5. This si notation refers exclusively to student number digits, and will not be used for any other purpose in this assignment.
If two digits occur consecutively in a question, treat them as the 10s digit and units digit of a two digit number. For example, if your student number is 18473025 as above, then s3s8 = 45 as a decimal number. Similarly for three or more digits, or digits after a decimal point: for this example student number, s1s6s8 = 155, and if p = 0.s4s7, then you would get p = 0.72.
Similarly if a student number digit comes after another digit, it does not mean multipli- cation, e. g., for student number 18473025, 3s3 = 34.
• −si means the negative of si, e. g., for student number 18473025, −s3 = −4.
• In certain questions, you may need to make other adjustments to some digits.
1.3. Deliverable. Provide as your deliverable a single document, with word limit 3000 words, in the form:
(i) A standard signed cover page (see Appendix 3 of Study Guide), containing title and handup date of assignment,
full name and student number of each student, identifying which student’s student number was used in which question,
a statement that this assignment is all your own work;
(ii) an individual statement by each student saying what that student contributed to the assignment: what they did for each question and the approximate percentage they did of the total work for the assignment. This may be used if differential grading is required. Each student may also give a personal reflection on the assignment;
(iii) your answers to the set problems:
text must be typed, no smaller than 10 point font;
diagrams e. g., of graphs/trees should be produced with a graphics tool if possible but may be hand-drawn if you cannot achieve this.
The cover page, individual statements, diagrams (and bibliography/references, if any) do not count towards the word limit. This deliverable may be in Word, Openoffice.org or pdf format.
Name the deliverable according to the convention
AM Surname List problems.pdf (or .docx, .odt, etc.) where Surname List means one of
• Surname1 Surname2,
• Surname1 Surname2 Surname3 or
• Surname1 Surname2 Surname3 Surname4
as appropriate to the team size. Each model file developed (e. g., in Mosel) must also be named with a similar convention, replacing problems by Q2 etc., as appropriate, e. g., you would submit AM Surname List Q2.mos as the Mosel file for Problem 2.
Submit your deliverables through Brightspace. This must be done by 22nd March, 2023; after this time, it will lose marks for being late according to the UCD Late Submission of Coursework policy.
2. PROBLEMS
1. You will address a Decision Analysis problem as described below using the tools discussed in [30 ]
class, and make a recommendation to the decision maker. In this problem, you will notice that “the chance that the antidumping tax will be imposed is p, where p is derived from the third and eighth digits of your student number”. To find the p to use in your submission, work as follows:
Let s3 and s8 be the third and eighth digits, respectively, of your student number. For example, if your student number is 18473925, then s3 = 4 and s8 = 5.
If s3 3, then set s3 := s3 + 3. For example, if s3 = 1, then set s3 to 4. If s3 8, then set s3 := s3 2. For example, if s3 = 9, then set s3 to 7.
Let p = 0.s3s8 as a decimal number. For example, if s3 = 5 and s8 = 9, then you would get p = 0.59.
AAA Electronics has contracted to supply half a million TabletPC systems to CostCo Stores in 90 days at a fixed price. Each TabletPC system requires a High Speed Northbridge chip (“HSN chip”) in order to function. In the past, AAA has bought these chips from a Korean chip manufacturer, Recce Chips. However, AAA has been approached by a Chinese manufacturer, CAC Electronics, which is offering a lower price on the chips. This offer is open for only 10 days, and AAA must decide by then whether to buy some or all of the HSN chips from CAC.
Any chips that AAA does not buy from CAC will be bought from Recce. Recce will sell HSN chips to AAA for S$3.00 per chip in any quantity. CAC will accept orders only in multiples of 250,000 HSN chips, and is offering to sell the chips for S$2.00 per chip for 250,000 chips, and for S$1.50 per chip in quantities of 500,000 or more chips.
However, the situation is complicated by a dumping charge that has been filed by Recce against CAC. If this charge is upheld by the Singapore government, then the CAC chips will be subject to an antidumping tax. The judgement in this case will be delivered exactly two weeks from now and, if the charge is upheld, the antidumping tax will go into effect immediately. If AAA buys the CAC chips, these will not be shipped until 30 days from now, meaning the chips would be subject to the tax if the charge is upheld. Under the terms proposed by CAC, AAA would have to pay any antidumping tax that is imposed.
AAA believes that the chance that the antidumping tax will be imposed is p, where p is derived from the third and eighth digits of your student number as described above. If it is imposed, then it is equally likely that the tax will be 50%, 100%, or 200% of the sale price for each HSN chip.
(i) Draw a decision tree for this decision.
(ii) Using expected value as the decision criterion, determine AAA’s preferred ordering alter- native for the HSN chips.
2. It is the end of the financial year (the winter quarter). Floggit Ltd, a new startup, produces [30 ] one product, for which the demand in units for the next four quarters is predicted to be as given in Table 1.
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