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estimate the root mean square error and the mean absolute error on a test set

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

• Explain the choice of variables in your model (you should not use country_name, if you use U5MR, you should use it on the log-scale!). In particular you should consider whether an interaction effect6 should be used.

• Assess your linear model and comment on its fit. This should be done a) for all data simultaneously; b) for data in each region; and c) for data in a maximum of 3 countries that should be chosen to highlight different aspects of the fit diagnostics.

• Estimate the root mean square error and the mean absolute error on a test set. The test set should be produced using the argument strata = region.

• Produce a prediction, with prediction intervals7 , of the NMR on its natural scale (aka not on the log-scale) and plot these a) for all data simultaneously; b) for data in each region; and c) for data in a maximum of 3 countries that show different aspects of the fit

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