a) Estimate a regression of monthly S&P 500 returns (ersandp) on a constant and the change in credit spreads (dspread) only. Report and comment on your results.
b) Examine graphically the residual plots. Copy/paste the residual plot into your problem set write up. Is there visual evidence of serial correlation and/or heteroskedasticity?
c) Conduct all the various diagnostic tests for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity we have encountered in class and report/comment on your results.
d) Explain why serial correlation might be more of a problem in higher frequency vs. lower frequency data. For example, in Empirical Handout 2 we saw strong autocorrelation in daily returns, but what about monthly returns as we have here? [This is more of a finance-intuition type question].
e) Based on your results in (c), is it necessary to use the HAC adjustment? Perform the regression with HAC standard errors and comment on any difference you find. Is the estimated relationship now stronger or weaker?
f) As a final test of the predictability of stock market returns, include in the regression above one lag of S&P 500 returns, ersandp(-1), and perform a robust regression (i.e., using HAC). Report and comment on the significance of the individual estimates. Discuss your results in light of weak-form and strongform stock market efficiency
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