Moving average forecast with varying averaging lengths (you may include weighted moving average forecast if you wish)

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES

ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

Evaluation of Forecasting Models

1. Create a final forecast for your series, including level adjustments and/or damped trend you feel appropriate. Add to the “My Forecast” workbook.

Your “My Forecast” worksheet should have the following forecasts:

• Unaided eyeball forecast

• Naïve without seasonal adjustment

• Naïve with seasonal adjustment

All remaining forecast should use seasonal adjustment unless otherwise stated.

• Moving average forecast with varying averaging lengths (you may include weighted moving average forecast if you wish)

• Simple exponential smoothing

• Holt’s linear exponential smoothing

• Holt-Winter’s model (optional - if you have access to software)

• Regression without seasonal adjustment

• Regression with seasonal adjustment

• A forecast using the software assigned to your team

• Your final/best forecast

2. Email me what you feel is your “best” forecast. 

3. I will email you the next year’s out-of-sample data for your series.

4. Do a “Quick and Dirty” comparison for all the forecast on your “My Forecast” worksheet.

5. For the 3 or 4 most promising forecast based on the quick and dirty analysis prepare a complete out-of-sample analysis. That is, select takeoff points, forecasting horizons, and measurements of accuracy for each forecast. If not included in the “most promising” list, also do a complete analysis of the naïve forecast and “your best forecast.” Compare the forecasting models analyzed.

6. Prepare a written report of your series, the various forecast and your evaluation.

Attachments:

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