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Use Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and compare the models. Which model should we choose according to AIC?

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

Assignment 1

Submissions must be made via Athena. The submission should be in the form of a script file that conforms to the requirements of script files of
the term paper. These requirements are found in the file assessment —UPDATED 2020—03—18. pdf (section 1, point 8) available on Athena under
“Course information”, only one file per group should be submitted.
1. Load the data in the accompanying file indprod.txt. It contains percentage change in annual industrial production in the US 1861—1989.
2. Estimate the five models AR(p) where p = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
3. Use Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and compare the models. Which model should we choose according to AIC?
4. Perform Ljung—Box and Jarque—Bera tests on the residuals of the selected model. What are the results? Interpret the results.
5. You may use the econometric software of your choice as long as the software can take instructions from a script file.
6. Your script file (an unformatted text file, ASCII file, preferably written in a text editor; file encoding UTF-8 is recommended) must meet the following
requirements:
a. Be well structured.
b. Being fully commented, whether it is an R script file or a script file Sweave.
c. The script the file must contain all codes that produce the test statistics,
graphs and tables that are presented in the term paper PDF file. This means that the script file should contain references to the documentation in the PDF file.
d. The script file must be fully reproduce the econometric results presented in the PDF from the reading of data and definitions of variables and the production of all charts, tables, and results in running text.
e. All the pre-processing of the data shall be documented in the script file. It means that no data management or other calculations than those
documented in the script should be needed to reproduce your inquiry. It also means that the project data files must be unedited raw data files from the source.
f. The script file should be able to be executed without error messages in the so-called batch mode with the software used no matter which it is.
g. Template for how the script files can be found in the files sample-r.r If you use another econometric software than R, your script file must follow the same template regarding structure, documentation, comments, etc.
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