What is the impact of rail infrastructure in Kent, with special focus on the impact of HS1?
Abstract
Previous research has studied the impact on rail infrastructure on a change in house prices. These reports were focused on other countries, such as: (Dorantes, et al., 2011) on new public transport infrastructure and house prices in Madrid and (Bohman & Nilsson, 2016) on the impact of regional commuter trains on property values in Sweden. The reports looking at the London area focused on other aspects of the economy, such as an increase in labour productivity. We have found no previous research in the last thirty years linking commuting times to London with house prices in Kent. Our study focuses on studying train stations in Kent, with focus on the impact of HS1 rail, and the relationship between commuting time to London and housing prices in Kent. We hypothesis that as commuting time to London decreases house prices will increase. We used HM Land Registry data, the Trainline, MSOAs and LSOAs, as well as information from ORR and HS1 to calculate a many variable used to make four models. We had three main findings: house prices and time to travel to London have a negative linear relationship, proximity of a house to a train station can considerably affect the house price, construction of HS1 had a positive impact on house prices. Our results show that increased commuting time has negative on house prices in areas surrounding London. Indicating government investment in more rail infrastructure can encourage migration out of London, reducing inequality and bringing better economic growth.
High-quality infrastructure with high coverage is crucial for improving the national economic development and national happiness shown by an index. When Trevithick 2 developed the first rail train in 1804, no one thought that the railway system would become the economic lifeline of the world powers such as Britain and China. Nor would it have been imagined that the London underground would open in 1863 (TFL 2020), making the Metropolis bustling with underground traffic. With the improvement of the railway system, the UK achieved rapid urbanisation with many moving from rural towns and villages in the 19th century to cities, especially London. London, one of the world's financial centres, is full of opportunities and wealth. Thus, people are more inclined to live in London or cities around London to take advantage of these opportunities. However, London’s high housing prices are likely to be prohibitive for ordinary families wanting to move there. House prices there are almost double that of surrounding cities. We want to explore the relationship between infrastructure and house prices. However, the classification of infrastructure is broad, so we narrowed our outlook to the impact of rail infrastructure on house prices in Kent, with a focus on the construction of the HS1 line. The house prices in London have been continuously rising, pricing people out of London. This makes alternative locations outside of London such as Kent more attractive. 46.5% of the population who immigrated to Kent in 2019 were from London. In Kent, people can still look for London job opportunities or maintain their job in London. As many in Kent work in London, we assume one of the most important impacts on house prices will be the ease of access to London. Thus, Kent's house price has been chosen as the research object. We have chosen to focus on HS1 as it will make it easier to infer causality rather than just correlation between rail infrastructure and an increase in house prices. The research question of our topic is "What is the impact of rail infrastructure in Kent, with special focus on the impact of HS1?". And the hypothesis is that the reduction in commuting time from Kent to London will cause house prices to rise. Because commuting 3 to London more easily is a big selling point for a Kent house, as most people are willing to spend more money to save time travelling to London.
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