1. Researchers are interested in the relationship between vaping and upper respiratory infections. Suppose that 15% of their population of interest has vaped in the past year and 25% have had an upper respiratory infection in the past year. In addition, they know that 10% have both vaped and had an upper respiratory infection in the past year.
a. What percent of the population has neither vaped nor had an upper respiratory infection in the past year?
b. What is the probability of having an upper respiratory infection in the past year given that the person has vaped in the past year?
c. What is the complement of the event in part b)? Be sure to interpret this probability in the context of the problem.
d. What is the probability of having an upper respiratory infection in the past year given that the person has not vaped in the past year?
e. Are the two events independent? Be sure to justify your answer.
f. Based on your calculations what can you conclude about the relationship between vaping and upper respiratory infections? Does vaping increase/decrease/have no impact on risk of upper respiratory infections? Explain your reasoning.
2. The Chinese Mini-Mental Status Test (CMMS) consists of 114 items intended to identify people with Alzheimer’s disease and senile dementia among people in China. An extensive clinical evaluation of this instrument was performed, whereby participants were interviewed by psychiatrists and nurses and a definitive diagnosis of dementia was made. The table below shows the results of the study.
CMMS score |
No Dementia |
Dementia |
0-5 |
0 |
2 |
6-10 |
0 |
1 |
11-15 |
3 |
4 |
16-20 |
9 |
5 |
21-25 |
16 |
3 |
26-30 |
18 |
1 |
Total |
46 |
16 |
Suppose a cutoff value of ≤ 20 on the test is used to identify people with dementia. Further assume the rate of dementia in the population of interest is approximately 10%.
a. What is the sensitivity of this test?
b. What is the specificity of this test?
c. Suppose your grandmother receives a negative test result. What are the chances that she actually has dementia?
3. Researchers are interested in the overall COVID-19 test positivity rate for the tri-state area (New York - NY, New Jersey - NJ, and Connecticut - CT). Based on 2019 data, 19.45 million people live in NY, 8.88 in NJ, and 3.57 in CT, for a total of 31.9 million people.
a. If the COVID-19 test positivity rate is 10% in NY, 15% in NJ, and 20% in CT, what is the COVID-19 test positivity rate across the tri-state area?
b. Suppose a given person in the tri-state area has tested positive for COVID-19. What are the chances they are from NJ?
4. How much time did you spend on this assignment? ________hour(s)? Estimate it to the nearest half hour (Example: 6.5 hours)
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