Climate change is now at the top of politicians’ agendas around the globe. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 Parties in an attempt to curb global warming to below 2 degrees:
“To achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral world by mid- century.”1
The Paris Agreement works on a 5-year cycle in which emissions targets are set and evaluated. Forecasting variables like CO2 emissions over a 5-year period is therefore very important.
You have been assigned a country (see “Country Allocation” below) and will work on a project to provide forecasts of CO2 emissions growth in that country up to 2025. You have been given the dataset “CO2.xlsx” which contains CO2 emissions (in metric tonnes) for a large number of countries and global regions. The data are taken from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy2 and have annual observations from 1965 to 2019.
Your task is to produce a four slide PowerPoint presentation which could be presented at an international climate change convention. The design and layout of the presentation is up to you (text, graphics, tables, equations, infographics etc. are all allowed), but the purpose of the slides should be as follows:
1. Analysis: To provide background and context to CO2 emissions in your country and an analysis of the historic time series properties and behaviour of the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions.
2. Econometric Modelling: To identify and report an appropriate forecasting model for annual CO2 emissions growth by selecting between an AR(1), AR(2), AR(3) and AR(4) model using the BIC. You should provide a discussion and evaluation of the model and modelling approach and its limitations.
3. Forecasting: To produce and display iterated multi-step forecasts for annual CO2 emissions growth for the period 2020-2025 (in other words, six out-of-sample forecasts). An evaluation of the forecasts and their uncertainty should be provided, as well as a conclusion in light of the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
4. Appendix: To provide all Stata codes used in the analysis.
The variable “Date” in the dataset is an annual (integer) variable and does not require any formatting for use with tsset.
You must submit a PowerPoint document or a pdf to Turnitin. The presentation must only contain four slides, and the font size should not be smaller than size 16 (except for the Appendix where you may decrease the font size for the Stata codes). There is no specific word limit in addition to the font size limit, but part of the marks for the project are awarded for presentation (see “Marking” below) which involves providing concise discussion. Any superfluous text is likely to detract from the project.
This coursework contributes 40% towards the final grade for this module. Slides 1, 2 and 3 all carry an equal weight of 25% and the remaining 25% is for presentation. See the separate marking criteria document. The Appendix slide will not directly receive any grades, but it must be provided and there will be a penalty for not including the Stata codes.
You have each been allocated a country from the dataset “CO2.xlsx”. Only countries with CO2 emissions greater than 0.5% of world emissions (as of 2019) have been included. This ranges from China (28.76%) to Argentina (0.51%). Please find your student ID number and country in the table below:
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